Dep. A Coruna vs Osasuna

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. The exact total landed in 17/20 recent completed games and 9/10 relevant home/away games, using scores and opponents within 90 days. Deportivo drew 1-1 with Levante, Betis and Getafe and lost 2-3 at Real Sociedad; Osasuna lost 0-2 at Sevilla and beat Racing Santander 2-0, with 20 league goals conceded in ten games. The latest available H2Hs were 1-2, 1-2 and 2-0. The model expects 3.38 total goals as a supporting cross-check. Main risk: Deportivo lost 0-1 at Atletico and to Sevilla, and Osasuna beat Getafe only 1-0. Current cup wins over Auriense and Calatayud are against weaker opponents and heavily discounted; H2H is old. No current exact-market decimal price verified; stale 1X2 snapshots are not exact total prices, odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.