Landskrona vs Orebro

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. The exact total landed in 17/20 recent completed games and 9/9 relevant home/away games, using scores and opponents within 90 days. Landskrona drew 1-1 with Varberg, lost 3-4 at Falkenberg and beat Sandviken 3-2; Orebro drew 2-2 at Norrkoping and 1-1 with Ljungskile and Nordic United. The relevant venue samples consistently contain at least two goals. The model expects 3.30 total goals as a supporting cross-check. Main risk: Three of the latest four H2Hs were 1-0 and Orebro just beat Falkenberg 1-0. Landskrona also have a recent 1-0 cup win; this matchup evidence materially lowers the estimate despite strong venue frequencies. No current exact-market decimal price verified; stale 1X2 snapshots are not exact total prices, odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.