Arda vs Septemvri Sofia

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. The exact total landed in 17/20 recent completed games and 9/10 relevant home/away games, using scores and opponents within 90 days. Arda drew 1-1 with Levski and Cherno More and lost 0-5 at Ludogorets; Septemvri lost 0-2 at Cherno More, 1-2 at Lok. Gorna and 2-3 to Dunav Ruse. The latest H2H was 1-1 and their league goals conceded are 18 and 23 after 12 games. The model expects 2.81 total goals as a supporting cross-check. Main risk: Both teams have recent 1-0 wins, Arda have failed to score in two recent away games, and a 2025 H2H finished 0-1. Neither attack is reliable enough for a more ambitious total. No current exact-market decimal price verified; stale 1X2 snapshots are not exact total prices, odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.