Sassuolo vs Fiorentina

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 70%. The exact total landed in 16/20 recent completed games and 7/9 relevant home/away games, using scores and opponents within 90 days. Sassuolo lost 2-6 to Lazio and 2-4 at Frosinone; Fiorentina drew 2-2 with Atalanta and lost 1-2 at Inter, 1-3 to Como and 1-2 at Genoa. Their defences have conceded 22 and 21 in nine league games; the model gives 74% to this total. The model expects 3.80 total goals as a supporting cross-check. Main risk: The latest H2H was 0-0, Sassuolo recently lost 0-2 at Como and drew 1-1 with AC Milan, and Fiorentina drew 1-1 with Napoli. This contrary low-scoring route reduces the estimate substantially. No current exact-market decimal price verified; stale 1X2 snapshots are not exact total prices, odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.