Leonesa vs Badajoz

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Leonesa are 5/7 current and 3/4 at home, beating Oviedo 69-67 and Moron 83-73. Badajoz are 1/6 and 0/3 away, losing 59-106 at Valladolid and 69-87 at Algeciras. Leonesa beat Spanish Basketball Academy 84-77 while Badajoz lost 64-76 there. Main risk: Leonesa's recent average margin is only +0.3 and several wins were narrow; they lost 92-96 to Melilla. There is no H2H and Badajoz have only six current games, so model 84% is reduced. No exact current market price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.