De Minaur A. vs Alcaraz C.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 83%. Alcaraz won a set in eight of nine recent completed hard-court matches, with four latest straight-set wins over Medvedev, Paul, Basilashvili and Khachanov. Recent H2H includes 3-0 and 2-0 wins over De Minaur; the model gives 66% for the narrower match win. Main risk: De Minaur won his four latest completed matches, including 2-1 over Zverev, and Alcaraz lost 0-2 to Bergs in October. Incomplete/retirement summaries are excluded from the completed-form denominator and model data confidence is only 56%. No current exact-market decimal price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.