Noha Akugue N. vs Charaeva A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Charaeva won a set in nine of ten recent completed hard-court matches, including 2-1 over Jacquemot and Knutson, 2-0 over Kartal and a 2-1 win over Rybakina. She is ranked 100 versus 126 and won her last four matches. Her set-winning record is stronger than the model's 41% outright-win estimate. Main risk: Noha Akugue won her four latest matches in straight sets, including Blinkova, and the medium-quality model favours her 59% to win. Charaeva lost 0-2 to Kubka, there is no H2H, and the current opposing form justifies a substantial reduction from her raw 90% set frequency. No current exact-market decimal price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.