Palermo vs L.R. Vicenza

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. The exact total landed in 19/20 recent completed games and 10/11 relevant home/away games after excluding results older than 90 days. Palermo recently drew 3-3 at Pisa and beat Carrarese 2-1, Mantova 2-0 and Empoli 4-2. Vicenza lost 1-2 to Modena, drew 2-2 at Benevento and lost 0-3 to Pisa. The model expects 3.48 goals (supporting evidence, not a calibrated guarantee). Main risk: Palermo have a recent 1-0 win over Juve Stabia and Vicenza can defend a lead, as their 2-0 win at Empoli shows; H2H is too old to carry meaningful weight. Current exact-market odds were not verified; stale 1X2 prices are not used, odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.