Austria Vienna vs SK Rapid

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. The exact total landed in 19/20 recent completed games and 8/9 relevant home/away games after excluding results older than 90 days. Austria drew 1-1 with Hartberg and lost 1-2 at Altach and 2-3 at Ried. Rapid won 5-1 against A. Lustenau, 3-1 against Hartberg and 2-0 at LASK, with 31 league goals in ten games. The model expects 3.61 goals (supporting evidence, not a calibrated guarantee). Main risk: Derby tactics can suppress pace; Austria lost 0-1 to Tirol and the recent H2Hs were only 2-0, 1-1 and 2-0, so the more ambitious over-2.5 market is avoided. Current exact-market odds were not verified; stale 1X2 prices are not used, odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.