Strasbourg vs Auxerre

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. The exact total landed in 18/20 recent completed games and 7/8 relevant home/away games after excluding results older than 90 days. Strasbourg lost 0-3 at Rennes, 1-3 to PSG and 1-2 at Nice; Auxerre drew 1-1 with Le Mans and won 3-1 at Le Havre after losing 1-4 at Rennes. Both have conceded 18 in eight league games. The model expects 3.60 goals (supporting evidence, not a calibrated guarantee). Main risk: The latest H2H was 0-0 and another recent meeting was 1-0; Auxerre also have recent 1-0 wins and both attacks can be inconsistent. Current exact-market odds were not verified; stale 1X2 prices are not used, odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.