Flora vs Narva

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. The exact total landed in 18/20 recent completed games and 10/10 relevant home/away games after excluding results older than 90 days. Flora recently lost 1-2 at Kalju and 1-3 at Harju and beat Tammeka 2-0. Narva lost 1-5 at Tammeka and 1-2 at Paide; their latest H2H was 2-2. Narva have conceded 76 in 34 league games. The model expects 3.95 goals (supporting evidence, not a calibrated guarantee). Main risk: Narva lost two of their last four games only 0-1, while Flora's 10-1 cup win came against a reserve side and is heavily discounted; May's H2H was 1-0. Current exact-market odds were not verified; stale 1X2 prices are not used, odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.