Fritz T. vs Hijikata R.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. Fritz took a set in 7/8 recent completed hard-court matches, including 2-0 wins over Paul, Altmaier and Herbert. Hijikata took a set in 4/9 and lost 0-2 to Atmane, Safiullin and Tsitsipas. The 2024 hard-court H2H was Fritz 2-0, given little weight because of age. Contrary evidence and main risk: Fritz just lost 0-2 to Musetti and Hijikata beat Kecmanovic in qualifying. The medium-quality model is for match wins, not this set market; cached odds may be stale. Exact current win-a-set odds were not verified, so price value is unconfirmed and odds are omitted. The completed sample includes Laver Cup matches using a deciding match tie-break; these remain usable only for the at-least-one-regulation-set event, not standard three-set duration or totals.