Rodionov J. vs Basilashvili N.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Basilashvili took a set in all nine recent completed hard-court matches and won eight, including Tsitsipas 2-1 and Mannarino, Cilic and Walton 2-0; his latest Medvedev defeat was 1-2. Rodionov took a set in 6/7. The older clay H2H receives little weight. The October 7 retirement loss is excluded and subsequent completed wins support current fitness. Contrary evidence and main risk: Rodionov is usually competitive, while Basilashvili has accumulated match load and is exposed to serving variance. The medium-quality model is for match wins, not this set market; cached odds may be stale. Exact current win-a-set odds were not verified, so price value is unconfirmed and odds are omitted.