Alcoyano vs Mallorca

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Both teams have 9/10 recent games under 3.5, with 10/11 in the relevant venues. Alcoyano beat Deportiva Minera and Poblense 2-0 at home. All six sampled Mallorca away games had two or fewer goals, including 1-1 at Leganes and Eibar and 0-0 at Girona. Model total: 1.83. Main risk: Mallorca beat Las Palmas 3-1 and Alcoyano drew 2-2 with Valencia B. A cup mismatch, lineup changes or an early red card can break the low-total pattern; old H2H is not decisive. No current exact-market price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.