Bayern Munich vs Magdeburg

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 69%. Bayern have 9/10 recent games over 2.5 and Magdeburg 7/10. All four sampled Bayern home games had four or more goals, including 2-2 with Arsenal and 6-1 against RB Leipzig. Magdeburg recently beat Karlsruher SC 6-1 and lost 1-2 at Hertha. The model expects 4.15 goals and gives over 2.5 an 83% baseline. Main risk: Bayern had a 0-0 at Schalke and Magdeburg drew 1-1 at Greuther Furth. Cup rotation, the divisional gap and a partial stale 1X2 odds record warrant a larger discount. The incomplete price probabilities are disregarded. No current exact-market price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.