Xerez CD vs Cadiz CF

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Xerez have kept all ten recent games below four goals, including 1-0 against Marbella, 0-1 against Ciudad de Lucena and 0-0 against Don Benito. Cadiz have 6/10 under 3.5; the combined relevant venue sample is 7/9. The model expects 2.21 goals. Main risk: Cadiz recently beat Ceuta 3-1 and Leganes 4-0, and their trips to Almeria and Eldense produced five and four goals. The divisional gap and cup lineups warrant a material discount; old H2H is not relied on. No current exact-market price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.