Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 79%. Both sides have 9/10 recent matches over 1.5, with 8/9 in the relevant venues. Siarka scored four against Lubaczow and beat Biala Podlaska 2-0 at home; Lech won 2-1 at Legia and 4-1 at Slask Wroclaw. All four sampled Lech away games had at least three goals. Main risk: Siarka face a substantial step up from lower-division opponents, Lech can rotate in the cup, and each side has a recent 1-0 result. H2H from the 1990s is discarded; no current exact-price edge is established. No current exact-market price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.