Kachmazov A. vs Noguchi R.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Kachmazov took a set in all ten verified completed recent hard matches and won nine, including wins over Hara Friend, Jasika, Sun and Zhu. Noguchi took a set in 7/10, won four and lost his last three completed matches. Kachmazov won their April 2025 meeting 2-0. Main risk: Kachmazov needed three sets in both qualifying matches and is lower ranked; several wins came against weaker opposition. The perfect observed set rate is heavily discounted for those factors. No current exact-market odds verified; price value is unconfirmed.