Levadia vs Tammeka

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Levadia scored at least twice in 8/10 recent matches and five of six sampled home matches. They won 3-1 at Flora, 2-0 at Kuressaare and 6-0 in September's same-venue meeting. Tammeka conceded two at both Flora and Paide and at least twice in three of five away games. The league leaders have 89 goals in 33 games; the model assigns them 3.41 goals. Main risk: Levadia scored only once against Paide and Narva, and won May's meeting only 1-0. Tammeka have two recent away games allowing at most one; Levadia's 10-0 against Keila JK is downweighted rather than treated as normal scoring. No current exact-market odds verified; price value is unconfirmed.