Sultanov K. vs Honda N.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. Sultanov has taken a set in seven of ten recent completed hard matches and won four of his latest five, including 2-0 wins over Castelnuovo and Purtseladze. Honda is 3-6 in nine completed matches with four 0-2 defeats in his latest seven. Live ranks are 416 and 637; the model gives Sultanov 65% to win. Main risk: Sultanov lost 0-2 to Ilagan and had other straight-set defeats against Aguiard and Heck. Honda qualified with a 2-0 win over Matsuda R.; this is a set estimate, not a claim that the winner probability exceeds 65%. Retirements and walkovers are excluded from form counts. Exact set-market odds were unavailable; price value is unverified.