Uchijima M. vs Mertens E.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Mertens has taken a set in six of nine completed recent hard matches, including 2-0 wins over Swiatek and Gauff. She beat Uchijima 2-0 in January 2026 and 2-1 in their older meeting. Live ranks are 14 and 121; the model gives Mertens 79% to win, but the set estimate is discounted for current form. Main risk: Mertens has lost her latest three completed matches, including two 0-2 losses. Uchijima took a set in seven of nine recent completed matches and can make this competitive. Retirements and walkovers are excluded from form counts. Exact set-market odds were unavailable; price value is unverified.