Xorazm Urganch vs Navbahor Namangan

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 69%. Navbahor won 7/10, scoring 22 and conceding 11, including 3-2 against Din. Samarkand and 4-1 at Buxoro. Xorazm won 1/10, scoring nine, with recent 1-3 against Qizilqum and 1-2 at OKMK. Navbahor rank third against fifteenth and won the August meeting 5-1; the 80% model is reduced for away-match uncertainty. Main risk: Navbahor recently drew both Pakhtakor and OKMK, while Xorazm held Termez and Sogdiana 0-0. Rank-based model strength may overstate the gap, and older head-to-heads receive little weight. No current exact-market odds verified; price value is unconfirmed.