Leiden W vs QSTA United W

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. QSTA United won its five current games and beat Jolly Jumpers 80-61, Orange Lions 75-67 and Den Helder 80-76. Leiden lost to those same three sides; QSTA won the latest two H2 Hs 92-59 and 85-69. Main risk: Leiden just won 68-56 at Binnenland and is at home. The model gives QSTA only 63%, so the current common-opponent advantage warrants a moderate rather than large upgrade. No current decimal price or alternative market line was independently verified.