Mpetshi Perricard G. vs Kovacevic A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Kovacevic (82) just beat Duckworth 2-0 and took sets from Tsitsipas and Berrettini in October. Mpetshi Perricard (145) lost his six previous completed hard-court matches before beating Baez, including straight-set losses to Donnet, Rodionov and Brooksby. Kovacevic won their January hard-court H2H 2-1; the match-win model is 74%. Main risk: Mpetshi Perricard's 2-1 win over Baez signals recovery and he won their grass H2H 2-0; Kovacevic also has recent straight-set losses, so the estimate is restricted to one set. No verified current price for this exact set market; odds omitted.