Neumayer L. vs Droguet T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Droguet (69) won a set in each of his listed recent hard-court matches, including 2-0 wins over Mayot and Lajal, a 2-1 win over Prizmic, and a 1-2 loss to Altmaier. He also beat Neumayer 2-1 in their old clay H2H, given little surface weight. The match-win model favors Droguet 69%. Main risk: Neumayer just beat Kopriva 2-0 in Vienna, while Droguet needed three sets against Schwaerzler yesterday and carries fatigue risk. No verified current price for this exact set market; odds omitted.