Neftyanik Omsk W vs UMMC Ekaterinburg W

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 79%. UMMC won all four current games by 12 or more and beat Ivanovo 83-71 away. Neftyanik lost 64-88 to Ivanovo and 45-70 to Spartak, although they beat Vladimir 84-53. UMMC won all four listed head-to-heads by at least 27. Main risk: UMMC have only one current away result, Neftyanik were competitive in a 60-63 loss to Nadezhda, and October cup results are not treated as additional league wins. Feed model 85% is only a cross-check; no exact current price or derived-market line is verified, so no positive-value price claim is made.