Qu Y. vs Kostovic T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. Kostovic won a set in 7/8 completed recent hard matches, with wins over Jacquemot, Galfi and Iatcenko. Qu lost all three supplied recent matches, including 0-2 to Putintseva; her ranking is 1034 versus 144. Opponent quality and the match model 81% support the direction. Main risk: Qu took sets against Dart and Zheng, so her three-match sample does not imply an easy win. Kostovic lost her latest match 0-2 to Kubka and is changing countries after Rovereto. Her earlier retirement result is excluded; no H2H is available. No current exact win-a-set price is verified; odds are omitted.