Kopp S. vs Romano F.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 70%. Kopp won a set in 4/5 completed recent clay matches, including wins over Cadenasso, Pieri and Marti Pujolras. He also beat Romano 2-0 in April. Rankings 308 versus 301 and the 53-47 match model suggest a close match, making a one-set selection more supportable than an outright winner. Main risk: Romano swept all three Florence opponents, including Jianu, and won a set in 3/4 recent matches. Kopp lost 0-2 to Forejtek and the recent samples are only five and four; the older H2H is secondary evidence, which keeps the estimate near the threshold. No current exact win-a-set price is verified; odds are omitted.