Schwaerzler J. J. vs Droguet T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. Droguet won a set in all four supplied recent hard matches, including a set against Altmaier and wins over Prizmic, Lajal and Mayot. Schwaerzler won a set in 4/7 but lost his latest two in straight sets to Cina and Pinnington Jones. Rankings 69 versus 173 and match model 71% favor Droguet. Main risk: Droguet has only four recent completed matches and three were in September. Schwaerzler beat Balshaw and has three straight-set wins in the sample. No H2H is available, so the estimate is discounted for sample size. No current exact win-a-set price is verified; odds are omitted.