Medvedev D. vs Bublik A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. Medvedev won a set in 8/9 completed recent hard matches and won all eight of those, including Paul, Tsitsipas and Cerundolo. He swept both Almaty opponents. Bublik won a set in 4/6 and has recent straight-set losses to Mensik and Jodar. Medvedev won all five listed H2Hs, though the latest is from 2023. Main risk: Bublik just beat Khachanov 2-1 and recently beat Nakashima; Medvedev lost 0-2 to Jodar. The old incomplete Djokovic match and Bublik-Marozsan walkover are excluded, with later completed matches available for both participants. No current exact win-a-set price is verified; odds are omitted.