Fernandez L. vs Bouzkova M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Fernandez won a set in all ten supplied recent hard matches, with wins over Alexandrova, Mertens, Gibson and Andreeva. She took sets in both losses, to Ostapenko and Rakhimova, supporting the narrower one-set market despite the match model preferring Bouzkova 52-48. Main risk: Bouzkova has won a set in all six completed recent matches and swept all three Ningbo opponents. Fernandez needed three sets in all three Ningbo wins; the 2019 H2H was a straight-set Bouzkova win but is too old to lead the estimate. No current exact win-a-set price is verified; odds are omitted.