St Etienne vs Nantes

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Since 1 September, this exact market landed in 5/6 St Etienne games and 2/5 Nantes games, including 3/3 for the hosts at home and 1/2 for the visitors away. St Etienne scored two at home to Rodez and three against Montpellier; Nantes lost 3-2 to Dunkerque and won 2-1 at Boulogne. Main risk: Nantes have recent 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 results and St Etienne just won 1-0. The Sion result is discounted and several old H2Hs were low-scoring. No current exact-market decimal price is verified; odds are omitted and no proven price edge is claimed.