Antwerp vs Charleroi

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. Since 1 September, Charleroi won 4/5 listed games and Antwerp lost 4/5; competition and opponent strength are considered separately. Charleroi have seven wins from eight league games; Antwerp have five defeats from eight and recently lost to Westerlo, Union, Club Brugge and Standard. Main risk: Several Charleroi away wins were only 1-0, leaving substantial draw risk. Antwerp won their latest cup game and older H2Hs are mixed; the model's 86% estimate is reduced substantially. No current exact-market decimal price is verified; odds are omitted and no proven price edge is claimed.