Medvedev D. vs Atmane T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. Medvedev took a set in 8/9 completed hard-court matches in the last 30 days, winning eight, including Paul 2-1 and Tsitsipas, Cerundolo and Shimabukuro 2-0. Rankings 5 versus 98 and the 79% winner model support the broader set market against Atmane. Older incomplete results are excluded from the sample. Main risk: Atmane took a set in all five completed recent matches and just beat Bellucci 2-1 and Hijikata 2-0. Medvedev lost 0-2 to Jodar; the incomplete 2024 Australian Open H 2 H is not treated as a completed BO 3 result.