Cobolli F. vs Nakashima B.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Nakashima took a set in 5/6 completed hard-court matches in the last 30 days, winning four, including Jacquet and Berrettini 2-0 and Mensik and Medjedovic 2-1. Cobolli took a set in 3/4 but won only one, losing to Mannarino, Safiullin and Tien. One set is better supported than an outright Nakashima win. Main risk: Cobolli is ranked 6 against 17, just beat Wawrinka 2-0 and is favored 57% by the match-winner model. Nakashima lost 0-2 to Humbert; no H 2 H is available and Cobolli's recent sample is small.