Stoiana M. vs Siniakova K.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Siniakova took a set in all four completed hard-court matches in the last 30 days, including two 2-0 wins over Linette and deciding-set losses to Samsonova and Svitolina. Her rank 86 versus 114 and the 59% winner model support a set against Stoiana. The incomplete Stearns match is excluded; Siniakova subsequently completed a win over Linette. Main risk: Stoiana took a set in 5/6 and won five, including Oliynykova 2-0 and Uchijima 2-1. Siniakova has only four completed matches in the window and no H 2 H; her win rate is only 2/4.