Trungelliti M. vs Dodig M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. Dodig took a set in all 10 completed clay matches in the last 30 days, winning nine, including Martinez 2-0, Neumayer twice and Moller 2-1. Trungelliti took a set in all five recent matches but only one win was in straight sets. The winner model narrowly favors Dodig 53%, supporting the less restrictive set market. Main risk: Trungelliti is ranked 90 against 138 and won four of five, including Monteiro. Both players lost a deciding set to Passaro, there is no H 2 H, and the model rates data quality low.