Wong C. vs Hara Friend J. D.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Wong took a set in 7/8 completed hard-court matches in the last 30 days, winning six, including Harris 2-1 and Zhang 2-0 and taking a set from Medvedev. He is ranked 92 against 272 and the match-winner model is 62%. Hara Friend has also taken a set in 8/9, but much of that run came against lower-ranked opposition. Main risk: Hara Friend won seven of nine and just beat McCabe and Milic 2-1. Wong lost 0-2 to Halys and has no H 2 H advantage; his latest win over Samrej required three sets.