Misolic F. vs Ribecai M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Misolic took a set in 5/6 completed clay matches in the last 30 days, winning all five, including Gill 2-0 and Almazan Valiente 2-1. Ribecai took a set in 4/5 but won only three, with losses to Papoe and Forejtek. The 60% winner model favors Misolic; older incomplete matches are excluded from both samples. Main risk: Misolic is ranked 495 against 288 and some wins came against weak opposition. Ribecai just beat Houkes 2-1 after an incomplete earlier match; there is no H 2 H and model quality is low.