Altmaier D. vs Fritz T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. Fritz took a set in all five completed hard-court matches in the last 30 days: 2-0 wins over Herbert and Arnaldi plus deciding-set losses to Tsitsipas, Munar and Alcaraz. Altmaier took a set in 3/5, losing 0-2 to Shelton and Cui. Rankings 14 versus 65 and the 75% match-winner model support a set. Main risk: Altmaier just beat Gojo 2-0 and Droguet 2-1, and Fritz won only two of the five completed matches. The listed 2023 H 2 H has no score and is excluded.