Telsiai vs Ukmerges Stekas

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. Telsiai won all six current-season games by double digits, including 94-70 over Vilkaviskis, 85-72 away at Neptunas 2 and 90-70 over Plunges Olimpas. They are 3-0 at home with an average margin of +18.3 points. Ukmerges are 2-4 and lost the latest two at home, 76-107 to Palanga and 73-87 to Omega-Tauras; the model is 80%. Main risk: Ukmerges beat Zalgiris Kaunas 2 by 108-87 and won 94-91 in the latest January H2H; their previous visit to Telsiai was a close 81-85 defeat, and six games is still a limited sample.