CSM Targu Mures vs BC Steaua Bucuresti

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 68%. Targu Mures are 4-1 in the five games since September 26, including 91-83 away at Valcea and 78-72 at Timisoara. Steaua are 1-4, losing 90-97 at the same Valcea venue and 75-98/73-76 to Corona Brasov. The model gives the hosts 84%, heavily discounted for the contrary H2H. Main risk: Steaua won the last three listed H2Hs, including 112-83 in this venue, and beat Rapid 98-88 on October 12 before losing 68-76 to Petrolul on October 17; Targu Mures lost their latest home game 85-91 to Voluntari and two wins came against Municipal Galati.