Vytis VDU vs Kauno Atletas

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 70%. Vytis are 3-1 this season and won both home games, 104-92 over Zalgiris Kaunas 2 and 88-84 over Neptunas 2. Kauno Atletas lost all five, including 83-107 at Zalgiris and 75-86 at Alytaus, with an average margin of -15.8 points. The shared Zalgiris comparison and home advantage support the model direction of 79%, discounted for the short sample. Main risk: Vytis lost 105-110 at Alytaus and needed a one-point win at Ukmerges; the H2Hs date to 2023 and are not treated as current-strength evidence.