Beijing vs Shenzhen

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Beijing won all five October games, most recently 96-78 over Guangdong, and won the two other October home games 97-96 over Zhejiang Chouzhou and 95-82 over Ningbo. Shenzhen are 1-4, with losses of 68-102 at Shanghai, 77-92 to Beijing Royal Fighters and 68-84 to Shanxi. Beijing won the latest listed home H2H 104-88; model 79% supports the direction. Main risk: Beijing escaped Jilin 84-82 and Jiangsu 86-83, Shenzhen just won 89-81 at Jiangsu, and Shenzhen won the latest overall H2H 118-110. Early-October exhibition context and small samples temper the estimate.