Grodno GrSU vs Rubon

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Across the same five current-season opponents, Rubon went 3-2 with an average margin of +2.8 points, versus Grodno GrSU 1-4 and -33.8. Rubon beat Grodno 78-70 and Minsk 79-73; GrSU lost to those opponents 52-98 and 48-104. Rubon also lost by only three to Borisfen while GrSU lost by 36. The model supports Rubon at 76%. Main risk: Rubon are only 1-1 away and both defeats were close; the samples contain five games each and the H2Hs are from 2020-21, so those old meetings carry little weight.