Alvark vs Ibaraki Robots

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 79%. Alvark won all eight October games, including 100-86 at Gunma, 103-78 at Osaka and 90-74 over Akita. Ibaraki went 2-5 in October and lost twice at Gunma, 77-86 and 71-72; Alvark also won the two listed October 2025 H2Hs, 94-84 and 81-68. The model is 88%, discounted for the rebound risk. Main risk: Ibaraki have just beaten Brave Thunders 82-74 away and Osaka 98-63; older September exhibition evidence and the 60-60 result are excluded from the core sample.