Machac T. vs Khachanov K.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Khachanov won a set in 5/7 completed hard-court matches in the last 30 days, winning all five, including Auger-Aliassime, Molcan and Sakamoto 2-0 and Fery 2-1. Machac lost three of nine recent matches 0-2 and lost to Molcan, whom Khachanov beat. Rankings 25 versus 72 and the 69% winner model support the set selection. Main risk: Khachanov suffered 0-2 losses to De Minaur and Hurkacz. Machac has five recent wins; the 2024 H2H was best-of-five and is not included in the recent BO3 sample.