Medvedev D. vs Shimabukuro S.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 85%. Medvedev won eight of nine completed hard-court matches in the last 30 days, including Paul 2-1 and Tsitsipas, Cerundolo and Rublev 2-0. Shimabukuro lost three of four completed recent matches 0-2, to Kecmanovic, Shapovalov and Gaston. Rankings 5 versus 109 and the 91% winner model support the broader set market. Main risk: Medvedev lost his latest completed match 0-2 to Jodar, while Shimabukuro just beat Safiullin 2-1. An older incomplete Medvedev match is excluded; the opponent sample has only four completed matches.