Hewitt C. vs Schoolkate T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. Schoolkate took a set in 5/6 completed hard-court matches in the last 30 days, including 2-1 over Fomin, 2-0 over Henning and deciding-set losses to Sweeny, Mayot and Martineau. Ranked 169 against 324, he has faced stronger opposition than Hewitt, whose three recent wins came against players ranked 734, 967 and 1809. The winner model is 65%. Main risk: Schoolkate won only 2/6 and lost 0-2 to Pavlovic. Hewitt is coming off a win, and there is no H2H sample.