Al Ahly vs Al Qanah

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Al Ahly scored at least twice in 4/5 completed matches in the last 45 days and 1/1 recent home matches in the same 45-day window. Al Qanah conceded at least twice in 2/4 recent matches and 2/2 recent away matches in the same 45-day window. Al Ahly scored twice at Zamalek and twice at Kitara, plus two against Abu Qir Semad. Al Qanah conceded three at Pyramids and two at ZED in its two recent away games. These observations support the home team total without adopting the model's 82% home-win estimate. The model expected goals for Al Ahly is 2.29, as secondary support only. Main risk: The samples contain only five recent Al Ahly results, four Al Qanah results and one Al Ahly home game. Al Ahly's 1-1 at Arab Contractors missed this team total, while Al Qanah allowed just one goal in each of its two recent home draws. Al Ahly's 5-0 at Asyut Petroleum inflates scoring, and no head-to-head evidence is supplied. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.